The hottest spandex enters the digestion period af

2022-10-15
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From the beginning of the year to the present, the spandex industry has experienced several substantial price increases. The spandex 20d has increased from 72000 yuan/ton to 84000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 16.7%. The spandex 30d has increased from 64000 yuan/ton to 68000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 6.25%. The current price of spandex 40d is 58000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 6000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 11.5%. In just two months, the growth rate of spandex industry reached a record high, and the price range also reached the peak. During this period, two large-scale industry conferences had a great impact on the price rise wave of spandex. At present, due to the low level of the overall inventory of production enterprises, the main price in the spot field has begun to show a consolidation state dominated by stability, and has lasted for some time. Spring and summer are the peak season of the spandex industry, because elastic fabrics in the textile industry have begun to be favored by the majority of consumers. After the year, the price of spandex soared, but recently, spandex began to show a stable state, and there was no intention to increase the price. However, the downstream manufacturers had different opinions on the price of spandex. We can analyze this pattern from the following aspects:

1. The booming downstream demand

the strong demand for spandex is the main reason to support the rapid rise of spandex price. The financial crisis led international customers to significantly reduce the purchase of spandex in the second half of 2008, but since April 2009, the international market demand has gradually recovered, and the accumulated demand has begun to release, which has promoted the gradual growth of China's Spandex export since April 2009, reaching a record high. According to statistics, from January to February this year, the import of spandex was 2900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 44.79%, and the export was 5700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 201.10%, ranking first in all sub industries of chemical fiber. From these data, we can see that the growth rate of spandex exports far exceeded the growth rate of spandex imports, which basically reached about 4 times. The relative rigidity of demand makes textile and clothing take the lead in coming out of the trough in the process of economic recovery, which drives the output growth of textile and clothing, and then promotes spandex manufacturers to maintain high opening rate and low inventory. Affected by the growth of demand, the growth rate of spandex production from January to February this year ranks first among the products of all sub industries of the chemical fiber industry, with a total production of 40700 tons, an increase of 91.78% year-on-year, and the price increase of 20.83%, which is also higher than other chemical fiber products. It is expected that the growth rate of spandex downstream demand will be more than 18%

2. Lifting effect of raw materials

raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI account for about 45% and 10% of the production cost of spandex respectively. Since the Spring Festival, pure MDI has increased by 2200 yuan/ton, reaching the price of 19000 yuan per ton, an increase of 13.1%. PTMEG increased from 21700 yuan/ton to 24500 yuan/ton, an increase of 13%. From the perspective of PTMEG's supply and demand structure, PTMEG's production capacity is relatively sufficient, which has little impact on the profitability of Spandex Enterprises, and its price rise may compress the profit space of spandex. Although PTMEG, as the main ingredient of spandex, has been rising and rising since the Spring Festival, it has increased by about 6000 yuan/ton in just a few months, resulting in a doubling of its cost pressure. Therefore, there are still very strong rising expectations in the follow-up, which will further promote the cost of spandex to a high level. In January this year, according to rough calculation, the average cost of domestic MDI manufacturers was about 15000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of pure MDI was about%. Last year, the profit margin of pure MDI reached 30%, a year-on-year decrease of about 15%. Therefore, although the profit margin of suppliers still exists, it is undoubtedly too low compared with the historical situation, and the price increase is also lower than most market participants' expectations. However, suppliers have begun to consider readjusting the operating rate, and the operating rate of an important domestic supplier has been reduced by about 30% recently. At the same time, some contract buyers have abundant orders, and there still seems to be room for MDI price increases. In this way, may 1 It cannot be used for static measurement, and MDI prices are more likely to continue to rise. However, the warmer price rise in the pure MDI international market will directly affect the cost of the spandex industry, which may be one of the reasons for setting the price of spandex at an impasse

3. Influence of other factors

the rise of labor costs will weaken the competitiveness of export enterprises, and the rapid appreciation of RMB may lead to the reduction of exports. Under the influence of these factors, the spandex industry is under great pressure

in some medium-sized cities, the monthly income of 1500 yuan has been difficult to meet the production front-line staff, because in such cities, the living expenses and prices are often relatively high, so it is difficult for such income to have a lot of surplus after ensuring a normal life. In addition, in order to encourage farmers' agricultural production, the national policy has exempted land and agricultural tax, As a result, some industrial production personnel from rural areas began to return to their hometown and live on the fields. Such a loss of labor has also caused a difficult situation of employment. To retain these migrant workers, we must improve their wages and treatment. It is an inevitable trend to improve the treatment of workers year by year so that we can really see whether our machines, including manufacturers and teams, are true. Labor cost is a long-term problem. Labor cost is also one of the costs of Spandex Enterprises. The increase of labor cost will undoubtedly bring the cost accounting of spandex industry to a higher level. In addition, the rising cost of energy, water, electricity, coal and labor means that a tensile testing machine can complete the tensile range of materials, which intensifies the cost accounting of spandex industry. These factors have promoted the soaring price of spandex industry. And some spandex manufacturers can only resolve some cost pressure by raising the price of Spandex Products

in addition, with the rapid improvement of the liquidity of the US dollar, the pressure of RMB appreciation is becoming increasingly prominent, further increasing the uncertainty of industrial exports, so the impact of RMB appreciation on us is certainly obvious. The unstable appreciation of RMB will reduce the profit margin of Spandex Enterprises and hinder the export of spandex

summary

although spandex, as the "industrial monosodium glutamate" of the textile industry and the additive of fabrics, has an irreplaceable position, if the price of spandex is too high, the downstream will sacrifice some fabric elasticity and reduce the amount of spandex, or choose alternative materials to reduce costs. Therefore, after the price rise in March, the overall transaction volume of spandex has remained relatively stable, and the basic transaction price still shows a consolidation trend dominated by stability under the mentality of most production enterprises to maintain stable operation. The author believes that the spandex industry has entered the digestion period after the price rise again, and it is expected that the spandex market in May will still maintain a relatively stable consolidation trend after the previous price rise, Various factors of cost pressure make the trend of the market not fall back quickly

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